A customer count forecast can be calculated using which formula?

A customer count forecast can be calculated using which formula?

• A. Customer count last period + customer count last period X by increase expected
• B. Customer count last period minus seasonal adjustment
• C. Average customer count of the last three periods
• D. Forecast using a fixed percentage

Answer: (A)

The idea being tested is forecasting by taking the most recent customer count and adjusting it with an expected growth rate. Start with the last period’s count and increase it by the anticipated percentage. This yields a forecast equal to the last period count plus the last period count times the expected increase, which is the same as multiplying the last count by (1 + growth rate). This approach ties the forecast directly to the latest actual data while incorporating the planned change, making it responsive to trends. The other methods don’t fit this approach: adjusting by a seasonal amount focuses on seasonality rather than a forward growth, averaging the last three periods smooths out recent trends and ignores a specific growth expectation, and using a fixed percentage applies a constant rate without anchoring to the latest observed value.

The idea being tested is forecasting by taking the most recent customer count and adjusting it with an expected growth rate. Start with the last period’s count and increase it by the anticipated percentage. This yields a forecast equal to the last period count plus the last period count times the expected increase, which is the same as multiplying the last count by (1 + growth rate). This approach ties the forecast directly to the latest actual data while incorporating the planned change, making it responsive to trends.

The other methods don’t fit this approach: adjusting by a seasonal amount focuses on seasonality rather than a forward growth, averaging the last three periods smooths out recent trends and ignores a specific growth expectation, and using a fixed percentage applies a constant rate without anchoring to the latest observed value.